Welcome to Las Vegas, where what happens here tonight may not stay here. We are talking, of course, about the 5th GOP presidential debate on CNN that might showcase the narrative for what’s to come in early 2016.
This is the last presidential debate of 2015 and when the calendar turns to 2016 in just over two weeks time, there will be just 32 days before the first ballots are cast in Iowa on February 1st.
Most, if not all, eyes will be on Donald Trump and Ted Cruz as the two leading outsider candidates come to Las Vegas to battle it out over who is the best equipped to defeat Hillary Clinton in next fall’s general presidential election.
Here are a few musings that are happening as we head into tonight’s debate:
- Ted Cruz has refused to attack Donald Trump and has taken the high road even as the business mogul has recently begun to lightly attack the Texan. On “Fox News Sunday”, Mr. Trump called his rival a “maniac” for how Cruz has handled himself inside the walls of the U.S. Capitol. In a hilarious response, Cruz tweeted out to his “friend” a link to the 1980s music video to the hit film Flashdance, naturally called “Maniac”. Suddenly, a whole new generation of Americans who follow politics were introduced to a 1983 movie about…dancing.
- False rumors circulated this weekend that Senator Rand Paul would drop out of the race if he didn’t make the final cut tonight. In the spirit of the holiday season, CNN used a Fox News poll released on Sunday that pushed the Kentucky Senator over the finish line. Will he take advantage of this second chance?
- The stakes are high for the slumping Ohio Governor John Kasich. After a less than stellar performance back in November in Milwaukee, Gov. Kasich continues to whine over Mr. Trump’s media exposure and says that he would be at 50% in the polls if he was given as much time as the frontrunner. No really, he did say that!
- The stakes are also high for former frontrunner Dr. Ben Carson. His polls numbers have nose-dived after several media attacks on his personal history and the subsequent attacks from Mr. Trump who called him “pathological”. In addition, Carson’s inability to articulate strong foreign policy positions gave much pause to primary voters who began to question his readiness to be president. Tonight, could be an opportunity for him to reverse this downward trend.
- Ditto Carly Fiorina.
As we do every morning before the debate, we ask each candidate a question. Let’s get started.
Donald Trump – Despite a fairly friendly relationship with Ted Cruz who is now leading in the latest Iowa polls, will you draw first blood tonight against the man who has so far refused to trash you?
Ted Cruz – Rising fast in the polls, and always taking the high road with Mr. Trump, do you respond to him should you be attacked or do you continue to stay above the fray, lay out your constitutional conservative vision for America, and point out the differences between you and Sen. Rubio?
Ben Carson – How do you turn your campaign around which has seen you plummeting in recent polls?
Marco Rubio – Since no moderator has so far asked you during the four prior debates, we want to know if you regret being a part of the Gang Of Eight and do you still advocate for a pathway to citizenship for the millions of illegals?
Jeb Bush – Could this possibly be the last time we see you on a debate stage this presidential cycle?
Carly Fiorina – You blasted Donald Trump over his remarks about temporarily banning Muslims from entering the country. CNN accused you of being responsible for the Planned Parenthood Colorado Springs shooting last month. How ready are you for the attacks that are likely to come your way from both CNN and Donald Trump?
Chris Christie – Suddenly, the media and political pundits are given you high marks for your recent campaign success in New Hampshire and wondering if you could win the nomination. With your approval numbers in the low 30s in your home state of New Jersey, making it nearly impossible to turn that state red in the general election, how do you expect to win the presidency if you can’t even deliver the state you govern?
John Kasich – Will you please not act like a whiny baby tonight?
Rand Paul – With terrorism the forefront of what’s on the primary voters minds after recent attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, what is your strategy to defeat ISIS?
Tonight’s debate will probably not move the dial much in terms of polling. The hype is usually always bigger than the event. But it will be interesting to see if Donald Trump draws first blood on Ted Cruz. If so, will Cruz return the fire or use humor to deflect a fight that he’d rather not have?
If you have $100 to gamble on tonight’s debate, bet $90 on the CNN moderators asking dumb questions and the candidates banding together to combat them and the other $10 on an all out verbal brawl. Either way, it will be worth it for entertainment purposes.
And finally, in the spirit of tonight’s showdown taking place in Las Vegas, we offer up our analysis of where each candidate might be spotted gambling prior to the debate based on their personality and campaign style.
At the craps table:
Donald Trump – The flashy, boisterous, and extremely rich frontrunner would no doubt be at the craps table with a huge crowd cheering him on.
At a separate craps table:
Chris Christie – The assertive and extroverted New Jersey governor would certainly be at a craps table but with a lot less fanfare than Donald Trump, though he thinks he deserves it. With his decision to skip Iowa and place all his bets on New Hampshire, the core of his campaign strategy, Gov. Christie walks away from the table after watching Mr. Trump get all the attention, and storms over to the roulette table and places all his remaining money on the number zero.
At the blackjack table:
Ted Cruz – Conservative, analytical, and wanting to win, the skillful Texan is the keen player at the blackjack table who is up to the challenge to succeed.
At the Texas Hold’em poker table:
Carly Fiorina – The former secretary and CEO of Hewlett-Packard is competitive, ambitious, and a fighter. In this game of poker, it’s you versus the rest of the table. Ms. Fiorina continues to take on Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump. No one is going to get in her way of playing the game to the best of her ability, win or lose.
Playing Keno:
Jeb Bush – The man who is holding out all hope for a miracle would no doubt be throwing a ton of good money at bad odds where the house has an enormous advantage. Yes, you can win at this lottery-style game but the long-shot odds of winning has everyone wondering why you even stepped inside the casino in the first place.
At the roulette table:
Dr. Ben Carson – Shy, introverted, and uninterested in playing against other players, the former neurosurgeon would spend the night inside the casino at the slow-paced game where bets are placed casually with no effect on the people around him.
Playing video poker:
Rand Paul – To us, the Kentucky Senator doesn’t seem as though he would truly enjoy gambling. However, he is very smart and could probably be successful beating the house playing poker in solitude.
Playing the slot machines:
John Kasich – For someone who is emotional, easily gets angry, and hates how the games are played, the Ohio governor would probably spend a few hours monotonously pulling the slot lever then eventually walking off in disgust as no one paid him any attention.
In a private room playing baccarat:
Marco Rubio – The Florida Senator, being smart and skillful, would most definitely want to be sitting at the same blackjack table as Senator Cruz trying to outdo the Texan but we suspect he would be persuaded to sit at the baccarat table, staked by establishment high rollers who begin to place massive bets on the one person after Jeb Bush and John Kasich who would be an acceptable alternative to Messrs. Trump and Cruz.
